As the election cycle intensifies, discussions about crime and public safety are likely to become more prominent among candidates and their teams. They may highlight specific events that gain attention through social media or word of mouth. However, viral incidents do not always reflect the actual data.
Drawing from nearly 30 years of research and experience as the former Director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics, I believe it’s crucial to examine what the data reveal about two key issues: current crime trends and the relationship between immigration and crime.
Crime Trends Post-Pandemic
Regarding crime trends, particularly violent crime, the national data suggests a continued decline through the end of 2024. Crime rates are expected to reach levels not seen in over 50 years. Today’s safety levels are significantly higher than in the 1980s and 1990s. This trend is supported by various independent researchers, including AH Datalytics, NORC, and the Council on Criminal Justice, where I serve as a senior advisor. Data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey also supports this.
Determining the exact reasons for these decreases is challenging. Potential factors include the return to normalcy after pandemic-related disruptions affecting local governments, schools, workers, and police. Additionally, significant investments from the American Rescue Plan and the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act have played a role. These initiatives have tackled issues such as “ghost guns,” funded community violence interventions, and established Gun Violence Prevention Offices at both federal and state levels.
Moreover, successful partnerships between local, state, and federal agencies, as well as collaborations with non-policing entities in cities like Boston, Nashville, Dallas, and Miami, have contributed to these positive outcomes. Effective crime prevention involves a comprehensive approach rather than a binary choice.
While many of these investments focus on those at immediate risk, they are also vital for preventing future criminal behavior, particularly among youth. As I mentioned at a recent crime trends panel at the National Conference on State Legislatures, a smart approach to crime involves being smarter about people and places.
Immigration and Crime
Addressing the link between immigration and crime, extensive research shows that immigrants do not commit more crimes than native-born Americans. This conclusion also applies to undocumented immigrants, based on the available evidence.
In my own studies, including research conducted in Texas, where immigration status is recorded during arrests, we found that American citizens were 1.19 times more likely to be arrested than immigrants. This pattern held for both violent and drug offenses.
The majority of immigrants come to America seeking the same opportunities and promise of a better life that have attracted people for centuries.
While some may find these facts uncomfortable, it is important to recognize that data and science should guide crime policy, much like they do in technology and transportation safety. Uninformed opinions can be harmful. It is essential that our leaders rely on data-driven approaches, even if it challenges popular perceptions.
Alex R. Piquero is a professor and chair in the Department of Sociology and Criminology at the University of Miami. He previously directed the Bureau of Justice Statistics and is a senior advisor to the Council on Criminal Justice’s Crime Trends Working Group.
