The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford recently released an updated briefing on work visas and migrant workers in the UK. The report highlights a significant decline in work visas issued in the first half of 2024, following recent policy changes.
The briefing notes that the number of work visas granted to non-EU citizens grew sharply between 2021 and 2023 under the post-Brexit immigration system. In 2023, a total of 312,600 work visas were issued to non-EU citizens, a substantial increase from 137,000 in 2019. The most significant growth was seen in the Skilled Worker visa category, with nearly 200,000 visas granted in 2023, more than triple the number issued in 2021.
However, after the Conservative government introduced its five-point plan in December 2023 to curb net migration, the first half of 2024 saw a marked decline in Skilled Worker visas, particularly in the healthcare sector. Between January and June 2024, only 15,200 visas were issued to healthcare workers, a steep drop from 72,000 during the same period in 2023. Despite this decline, visa grants for healthcare professionals remained higher than pre-pandemic and pre-Brexit levels.
By March 2024, 64% of Skilled Worker visas were granted to occupations newly eligible under the post-Brexit system. Of these, 39% went to care workers, a category added to the Skilled Worker route in February 2022. The most common recipients of these visas were care workers, nurses, senior care workers, and doctors. The health and care sector accounted for over 60% of all Skilled Worker visas in the year ending March 2024, reflecting the UK’s growing reliance on migrant workers in this sector, a trend that accelerated after the pandemic.
The briefing also emphasizes the shift in the composition of work visa recipients since the end of free movement in 2020, with a significant move away from EU citizens to non-EU citizens. In 2023, only 7% of work visas were granted to EU citizens, a sharp decline from the estimated 45% in 2019. Indian citizens were the largest group of recipients in 2023, making up 22% of the total, particularly in the health sector under the Skilled Worker route.
A recent press release from the Migration Observatory suggests that the decline in visa numbers seen in 2024, as reflected in the latest Home Office immigration statistics, could help the new Labour government meet its commitment to reduce net migration. The press release noted a 156,000 (27%) reduction in the total number of visas issued, from 583,000 in January to June 2023, to 427,000 in the same period in 2024. In the first half of 2024, 237,000 work visas were granted, compared to 304,000 in the entire year of 2023.
Despite these reductions, the number of Skilled Worker visa applications outside of health and care remained stable between May and July 2023 and the same period in 2024, even though the minimum salary threshold for foreign skilled workers increased from £26,200 to £38,700 in April 2024.
Dr. Ben Brindle, a researcher at the Migration Observatory, suggested that the visa reductions in 2024, along with rising emigration, could lead to a decrease in net migration in the coming year. However, he cautioned that the extent of this decline would depend on various factors, including the number of international students staying in the UK and any potential rebound in health and care visa grants.
Dr. Brindle stated, “Visa numbers have dropped in the last few months of the Conservative government, and emigration has also been on the rise. In theory, this should lead to a decline in net migration over the next year. But the exact scale of the decline is difficult to predict. We don’t yet know how many of the recent student arrivals will stay in the UK long-term, and any recovery in health and care visa numbers could also slow the decline. Nevertheless, the indications are strong that Labour will be able to meet its commitment to reduce net migration from the unusually high levels recently observed in the UK, largely due to trends that were already underway before they took office.”
This observation underscores the complexity of migration trends and the challenges in predicting future migration patterns, particularly in light of ongoing policy changes and global events.