Trump’s Immigration Stance Bolsters GOP Dominance but Faces Future Risks.
For the past nine years, immigration has been central to former President Donald Trump’s hold over the Republican Party. During his first presidential run, negative sentiments toward immigrants significantly contributed to his success in securing the GOP nomination. These views have become even more crucial in predicting support for him in the 2024 primaries.
Given this history, it was no surprise that immigration was the defining issue at last month’s Republican National Convention. Many speakers harshly criticized President Joe Biden’s immigration policies, often with misleading claims. Trump announced Senator JD Vance, a fellow immigration hardliner, as his running mate. The convention floor was filled with “Mass Deportation Now” signs, and in his own speech, Trump referred to illegal immigration as an “invasion” responsible for “killing hundreds of thousands of people a year.” He promised the “largest deportation operation in the history of our country.”
As Biden is no longer a candidate, Republicans have swiftly shifted their attacks to Vice President Kamala Harris’s immigration record as the so-called “border czar.” Last week, Vance toured the U.S.-Mexico border in Arizona, where he declared, “It’s hard to believe, until you see it with your own eyes, just how bad the policies of the Kamala Harris administration have been when it comes to the southern border.”
These immigration stances are no longer solely for Trump’s core supporters. They have become a viable general-election strategy. Trump’s immigration policies now have broader support than they did in 2016 or 2020.
While Trump’s 2016 victory seemed to validate his restrictive immigration views, a backlash against his administration’s policies pushed public opinion to the left. By 2020, more Americans supported increasing immigration levels (34 percent) than decreasing them (28 percent) for the first time since Gallup began polling the issue in 1965.
Consequently, Biden held a substantial lead over Trump on immigration in 2020. He led by more than 15 percentage points on the question of which candidate would better handle immigration.
However, public opinion on immigration has shifted sharply to the right since Biden took office. There has been an 11-point increase in the percentage of Americans who believe “immigrants drain national resources,” a 12-point rise in support for deporting undocumented immigrants, and record support for the U.S.-Mexico border wall. Support for reducing immigration levels has surged from 28 percent in May 2020 to 55 percent in June 2024, the highest level recorded by Gallup since October 2001.
A new Democracy Fund report by John Sides, Robert Griffin, and myself explains this shift. Public attitudes toward immigration have largely followed the changing discourse on the issue since Biden became president. As politicians and the media have moved from criticizing unpopular Trump-era policies like family separation to expressing concern about record border crossings under Biden, average Americans’ opinions have shifted accordingly.
These concerns are more prevalent among Republican politicians and conservative media. For example, there has been a sharp increase in immigration discussions on outlets like Fox News. As a result, this rightward shift in public opinion is more pronounced among Republican voters. By 2024, a record-high 88 percent of Republicans want to decrease immigration, up from 48 percent in 2020.
But Democratic attitudes have also changed. The percentage of Democrats who want to reduce immigration has increased from 13 percent in 2020 to 28 percent in 2024. This shift likely reflects the messages from Democratic leaders, who have also voiced concerns about the border situation. In January, Biden himself called it “broken.”
The public’s growing opposition to immigration has turned Trump’s previous liability into one of his strongest assets. Before Biden dropped out, polls consistently showed that more voters trusted Trump on immigration than Biden. Similarly, in a YouGov poll conducted shortly after Biden’s withdrawal, Trump’s largest issue advantage over Harris was immigration, where he led by a 45-percent-to-30-percent margin.
Immigration has also become a more important issue to voters than it was four years ago. Our Democracy Fund report shows that the percentage of voters who consider immigration “very important” increased from 47 percent in 2020 to 54 percent in 2024, with an 11-point increase among independents. Additionally, immigration was identified as the nation’s top problem for three consecutive months in Gallup polls from February, March, and April.
These significant shifts in immigration attitudes over the past eight years align with the thermostatic model of public opinion. According to this model, public policy attitudes move in the opposite direction of the current president’s policies, much like a thermostat adjusts temperature. Under Trump, public opinion on immigration shifted to the left; under Biden, it has shifted back to the right.
This trend poses a potential risk for Trump. If he wins a second term and implements his promised mass deportation and strict immigration limits, public opinion may swing back to the left. Even if immigration helps Trump secure victory in 2024, his advantage on this issue could be short-lived.
