The dust has settled from the European Parliament elections, revealing a significant shift to the right, though not enough to place far-right parties in control of EU institutions. The real impact is felt at the national level, where centrist governments in France and Germany face increasing threats from populist, anti-immigrant parties.
Even if current administrations remain in power, the influence of populist opposition, as seen in the Netherlands under Prime Minister Mark Rutte and in the UK under the Conservatives, can push centre-right governments toward anti-immigration policies. This shift complicates Europe’s need for foreign workers amidst its migration crisis. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has managed to balance the situation by displaying hostility towards asylum seekers while addressing immigration needs. In contrast, the UK’s Conservative Party, facing potential electoral defeat in the upcoming July general election, has struggled with this strategy.
The EU’s refugee system has been criticized for being cruel, illegal, and ineffective. Member states have been accused of pushing refugees back across borders and paying North African autocracies to detain them in harsh conditions. Despite these measures, over 150,000 migrants reached Italy via the Mediterranean last year, a 73% increase from 2022.
The EU’s asylum policy reflects its political tone, exemplified by the career of Fabrice Leggeri, the former head of the EU border agency Frontex. After resigning amid a human rights scandal, Leggeri became a candidate for Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally in the European Parliament elections.
Europe’s need for migrant workers is becoming increasingly apparent. Job vacancies, particularly in countries with strong anti-immigrant parties like Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, and Germany, remain high. Sectors such as construction and STEM fields, crucial for the green transition, are particularly affected.
The EU’s efforts to connect immigrant workers to jobs, such as the “Blue Card” scheme for highly skilled workers, have been largely ineffective. Only 82,000 Blue Cards were issued in 2022, with 77% issued by Germany alone. Employment remains primarily a national responsibility.
Without a coherent plan, countries facing labor shortages and political sensitivity to immigration often resort to hypocrisy. Governments publicly oppose irregular immigrants and asylum seekers while quietly admitting foreign workers. This contradiction is exacerbated by rising nativist sentiment.
In the UK, Conservative prime ministers have pursued conflicting policies, attempting to send asylum seekers to Rwanda while issuing numerous work visas, especially in the care sector, and student permits. This approach has damaged the credibility of both the economy and immigration policies.
In contrast, Meloni’s two-faced strategy in Italy has been more successful. Her Brothers of Italy party performed well in the European Parliament elections, and she has doubled the number of non-EU work permits since 2022. Her support base in Italy’s wealthy industrial north appreciates this influx of workers. However, she still faces criticism, acknowledging that Italy’s work visa scheme has been exploited by criminal gangs.
The rise of far-right parties in Europe threatens to exacerbate labor shortages. Parties like the RN in France and AfD in Germany present the solution—immigration—as the problem. Yielding to nativist prejudices will only deepen Europe’s economic challenges and perceptions of failure.