As the presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump prepare for their upcoming debate, immigration is poised to be a key topic. Trump is expected to accuse Biden of opening the floodgates to illegal immigration, while Biden will likely blame Trump for sabotaging legislative efforts to cut entries. This debate echoes sentiments from a century ago when both parties sought to drastically reduce immigration.
In May 1924, President Calvin Coolidge signed the National Origins Quota Act, introducing the first permanent cap on legal immigration. This law established the foundations of America’s current immigration system: low overall caps and country-specific limits, with preferences for relatives of U.S. citizens. The act effectively restricted legal immigration for many, leading to widespread illegal immigration.
Recent research from the Cato Institute reveals the long-term consequences of the National Origins Quota Act, demonstrating its immediate and enduring damage to the legal immigration system. Prior to the act, 98% of applicants for permanent residence were approved. Since 1924, the approval rate has consistently been a minority. By the 1930s, over 90% of applicants, including Jews fleeing the Holocaust, were denied entry annually.
Despite Congress gradually easing restrictions after World War II, the fundamental framework of the 1924 law remained. By 1995, over 10 million immigration requests were submitted, and this year, an unprecedented 35 million requests have been made – with only 3% expected to be approved, matching the lowest rate on record.
The U.S. not only admits a low percentage of applicants but also faces a massive backlog, resulting in millions of people likely dying before they can immigrate legally. Even the highest-skilled applicants often face century-long waits for a green card.
Contrary to some beliefs, America is not experiencing an unprecedented surge in immigration. Instead, the century of restrictive immigration policies has backfired, leading many to resort to illegal entry. From 1925 to 2024, Border Patrol has made nearly 60 million arrests, with about 20 years seeing over a million arrests annually.
Illegal immigration arises when legal immigration becomes too difficult. In the 1920s, the connection was clear: Congress had just passed laws prohibiting most immigration, likened to alcohol Prohibition, with human smuggling networks dubbed “bootlegging in people.” There was no doubt that Congress had created the problem, just as it had with alcohol bootlegging, which ended by re-legalizing alcohol.
Biden’s border plan, though well-intentioned, is hampered by arbitrary caps that block legal migration. Many Americans are unaware of the challenges of legal immigration. According to Cato’s polling, only 41% believe illegal immigration occurs because legal immigration is too difficult. Moreover, 80% think immigration should take five years or less, yet the U.S. is still processing family-sponsored applicants who applied before 9/11.
Undocumented immigrants often end up in homeless shelters because they cannot arrange jobs and housing before arriving and are prohibited from working legally for months after being released at the border.
Despite these issues, the Congressional Budget Office recently found that recent immigration will reduce deficits by $1 trillion and increase the economy by $7 trillion. Immigration is beneficial, with immigrants contributing significantly to the economy, while the legal system remains broken.
The U.S. faces a labor shortage with nearly 8.5 million open jobs and a historically low unemployment rate. Without immigration, the labor force would decline, exacerbating the shortfall in workers needed to support retirement systems and care for the elderly population.
Some claim America’s immigration policy is “the most generous in the world,” but the U.S. ranks in the bottom third of wealthy countries for its foreign-born population share. While America admits more immigrants than any other country, it lets in far fewer on a per-capita basis. To match Canada’s foreign-born share, the U.S. would need to admit 35 million immigrants tomorrow. Even a fivefold increase in immigration over five years would not bring the U.S. up to Canada’s level.
America has ample room to grow, but political institutions must allow it. A century of immigration restrictions has failed, making the country smaller and less prosperous while failing to stop immigration. Instead, it has made immigration more chaotic and illegal.
Returning to pre-1924 traditions, where those willing to come legally, work, and contribute were welcomed, could restore order and prosperity to America’s immigration system.