A Guardian analysis indicates that younger generations in certain parts of Europe are more opposed to immigration than their older counterparts, as mainland Europe braces for the EU elections in June.
Pan-European polling data reveals that in some countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, Generation Z and millennials hold more negative views on immigration compared to Generation X and baby boomers. This trend coincides with a rising tide of support for far-right parties in the upcoming European Parliament elections, following recent national elections where young voters in the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden, and France significantly backed nationalist and Eurosceptic parties.
While baby boomers across Europe generally remain the most likely to hold anti-immigration views, in several member states, millennials (born between 1980 and 1997) and Gen Z (born after 1997) exhibit equally or more negative attitudes towards immigration from outside the EU.
The analysis draws on generational polling data from Eurobarometer, a series of cross-country public opinion surveys conducted for the EU Institutions since 1974. These surveys ask respondents if they have negative feelings about immigration from outside the EU, with results categorized by generation: Gen Z, millennials, Gen X (born between 1965 and 1980), and baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964).
Eurobarometer data indicates a hardening of anti-immigration attitudes among younger respondents since the last EU elections, mirroring a broader rise in such sentiments across all age groups. In 2019, 32% of Europeans aged 15 to 24 reported negative attitudes toward immigration; by late 2023, this figure had risen to 35%. Among those aged 25 to 34, negative sentiment increased from 38% to 42%.
New generational gaps in attitudes have emerged in specific countries, notably in Eastern Europe. In Slovenia, millennials are now the most negative towards immigration among all generations, including baby boomers. Specifically, 35% of Slovenian millennials report “very” negative feelings about immigration, compared to 31% of baby boomers, indicating a rise in extreme views among the younger generation.
In France, half of the millennial respondents express negative views on immigration, surpassing the levels seen in Gen X and Gen Z. Conversely, in Poland and Hungary, Gen Z shows the highest levels of anti-immigration sentiment. In Poland, 52% of those born since 1997 hold negative views on immigration, compared to 42% of millennials and 39% of Gen X. In Hungary, a majority across all generations express negative feelings, with Gen Z being relatively more negative than millennials.
This rise in anti-immigration sentiment among younger people contrasts with trends in other EU member states like Germany, Italy, and Spain, where negative attitudes towards immigration decline across generations.
As the EU prepares for the June European Parliament elections, far-right parties are poised to gain ground. On May 19, far-right leaders, including Marine Le Pen of France, Viktor Orbán of Hungary, and Giorgia Meloni of Italy, gathered in Madrid for a convention organized by Spain’s Vox party. They called for cooperation ahead of the elections, emphasizing anti-immigration rhetoric. Orbán urged “patriots to occupy Brussels,” accusing EU leaders of facilitating “massive illegal migration.” Meloni echoed these sentiments, urging mobilization ahead of what she termed decisive elections.
A focal issue for the far-right is the EU’s recently approved asylum and migration pact, which aims to streamline asylum procedures and expedite deportations. Despite its intent to address rising anti-immigration sentiment, over 160 rights organizations, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have criticized the pact. Some far-right factions argue it does not go far enough and reject its new solidarity rules for refugee relocation. Hungary and Poland have already declared they will not accept relocations stipulated by the pact.
Frontex, the EU’s border agency, reports a rise in irregular migration to the EU, though current levels remain below those seen during the 2015-16 refugee crisis. In 2023, 385,445 irregular border crossings were recorded, up from 326,217 in 2022 and 199,898 in 2021. This is still significantly lower than the 1,882,102 crossings registered at the peak of the refugee crisis in 2015.