Recent data revealed that nearly 80% of unauthorized immigrants have resided in the United States for a decade or more, sparking concerns about the ramifications of deporting a group deeply embedded in the country. The figures, disclosed in a recent Department of Homeland Security (DHS) report, shed light on Donald Trump’s ambition to expel the entire unauthorized immigrant cohort. Economists caution that such a move could not only disrupt the lives of immigrants and their families but also adversely impact the economy, potentially leading to the displacement of numerous American workers.
DHS Estimates of Unauthorized Immigrant Population
According to a new DHS report, the unauthorized immigrant population in the United States stood at 11 million as of January 1, 2022, marking a decline from the 2015 estimate of 12 million. Despite being higher than the 2020 figures, the 2022 total falls below the 2018 estimate of 11.6 million. The report utilizes two population estimates to ascertain the unauthorized immigrant count: the total foreign-born population residing in the U.S. on January 1 of each year and the legally-resident, foreign-born population during the same period. The unauthorized immigrant estimate is derived from the disparity between these two figures.
Key findings from the report include:
Approximately 80%, or 8.7 million, of the 11 million unauthorized immigrants arrived in the U.S. before 2010, indicating that a significant majority have established roots in the country for over a decade.
The unauthorized immigrant population from Mexico has exhibited a consistent decline, dropping from 5.5 million in 2018 to 4.8 million in 2022, translating to an annual decrease of around 180,000.
Following Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras represent the next largest unauthorized immigrant populations. The numbers from Guatemala (750,000) and Honduras (560,000) have seen notable increases since 2018, particularly between January 2019 and January 2020.
The unauthorized immigrant populations from India and China witnessed declines of 54% and 47%, respectively, between 2018 and 2022.
California (2.6 million) and Texas (2.1 million) were the primary states of residence for unauthorized immigrants in 2022, followed by Florida (590,000), New Jersey (490,000), Illinois (420,000), and New York (410,000).
Donald Trump’s Deportation Proposal
Former President Donald J. Trump is reportedly planning an extensive expansion of his first-term immigration crackdown should he return to power in 2025. This initiative includes a massive roundup of undocumented individuals already in the United States, with plans to detain them in large-scale facilities while awaiting expulsion, as reported by the New York Times. The strategy involves leveraging local law enforcement and National Guard units from states with Republican governors. To alleviate pressure on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention facilities, Trump intends to construct substantial camps for detainment purposes, with funding sourced from military budget redirections.
Economists’ Perspectives on Trump’s Plan
Economists challenge the notion that mass deportation would create job opportunities for U.S. workers, labeling it as a fallacy based on the assumption of a fixed job market. They argue that immigrants contribute to job creation through various channels such as consumer spending and entrepreneurship. Research indicates that mass deportation efforts could harm U.S. workers, particularly those with lower education levels, by diminishing both employment opportunities and wages. The disruption caused by the sudden removal of immigrant workers could lead to long-term job losses for native workers.
Utilizing Legal Channels to Address Illegal Immigration
Policy alternatives exist to manage illegal immigration by incentivizing legal pathways. Studies suggest that expanding legal avenues is more effective in curbing illegal entry compared to enforcement-centric approaches. Border Patrol data demonstrate that work visas and humanitarian parole programs have been more successful in deterring illegal immigration than enforcement-only policies pursued during the Trump administration. The reduction in foreign-born workers since 2017 has contributed to inflation and slower economic growth, underscoring the importance of reevaluating deportation strategies in light of current demographic trends.