For years, immigration has been a divisive issue across Europe, often framed by politicians and media as a crisis. In the UK, tabloid headlines have carried anti-migrant rhetoric for decades, while countries like Denmark and Hungary have seen a steady rise in nationalistic, anti-immigrant political movements. Despite this, a new analysis of public attitudes reveals a more nuanced picture, showing that, over time, many Europeans are becoming more accepting of immigration and its impacts.
Positive Trends in Public Attitudes
Data from the European Social Survey (ESS), the most recent of which was released at the end of 2024, suggests that contrary to the negative portrayal in the media, public opinion on immigration is becoming more positive in many European nations. Compared to two decades ago, more people now believe immigration improves their country, both culturally and economically.
Countries such as Ireland, the UK, Norway, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Switzerland have seen particularly notable increases in positive attitudes towards immigration. The UK, for instance, has experienced a dramatic shift. In 2002-03, just 27% of the British public believed immigration positively impacted the economy, but by 2023-24, this figure had risen to 66%, despite a slight drop from the previous survey. Additionally, the UK topped the latest World Values Survey for being highly accepting of immigration and its cultural diversity.
Furthermore, a majority of the UK public supports easing immigration for workers, especially in sectors like the NHS and care work, where there are acute shortages. Similarly, most Britons believe the current level of international student migration should either remain the same or increase, with international students accounting for a significant portion of net migration.
Explaining the Divergence Between Media Narratives and Public Opinion
The discrepancy between the media’s portrayal of public opinion and the actual data can be attributed to several factors. While media coverage and political rhetoric often emphasize the negative impacts of immigration, public attitudes are more stable, shaped by long-held values and generational shifts. People’s views on immigration tend to evolve slowly, and younger generations are generally more supportive.
One factor in this shift is a “reverse backlash” effect. As far-right political movements gain traction in some European countries, particularly among younger voters, public attitudes toward immigration can become more positive as citizens seek to distance themselves from radical, anti-immigrant rhetoric.
At the same time, the salience of immigration as a political issue can fluctuate. Media attention and political narratives can amplify concerns, which may cause temporary spikes in public anxiety. This was evident during Europe’s “refugee crisis” in the mid-2010s, which led to brief upticks in anti-immigrant sentiment in countries like Sweden and Germany.
Signs of Negative Shifts
While long-term trends show a growing acceptance of immigration, recent data also points to concerning shifts in some countries. Ireland, the UK, the Netherlands, and Poland have seen declines in the number of people who believe immigration makes their country a better place to live. For instance, Ireland saw a significant 10-point drop from the previous survey, while the UK experienced a 5-point decrease in positive sentiment towards immigration. Although the UK still maintains a solid majority in favor of immigration (63%), this change could signal a broader, albeit subtle, shift.
These changes might be short-lived, akin to the fluctuations seen in Sweden and Germany in the late 2010s. However, they also reflect the growing influence of hostile, anti-immigrant narratives fostered by political leaders and the media, potentially marking the beginning of a generational shift in attitudes.
The Need for Caution
While these negative trends could be temporary, there is a risk that they could undermine the public good at a critical time when Europe needs immigration to support its economy and demographic needs. If these shifts persist, it may become more challenging to sustain the positive public view that has emerged over the past two decades.
In conclusion, while there are signs of growing public concern in some areas, the overall trend across Europe remains one of increased acceptance of immigration. It is crucial that policymakers and media outlets continue to promote informed, balanced discussions about the economic and cultural benefits of migration, especially as Europe faces a future where immigration will play a key role in addressing labor shortages and demographic challenges.
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