A new report by Statistics Canada reveals that despite a reduction in immigration rates, Canada’s population is still projected to grow significantly in the coming decades.
Population Growth Amid Immigration Cut
Statistics Canada released new projections on Tuesday, factoring in the federal government’s recent decision to cut immigration by 21% in 2025. This policy change was announced in October 2024 by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who stated the goal was to slow down population growth temporarily to ease pressures on the economy, particularly in housing and infrastructure.
Despite the reduction in both permanent and non-permanent residents, Statistics Canada predicts that Canada’s population will continue to grow over the next 50 years. In fact, migratory increase will be the primary driver of this growth.
Population Projections for 2074
Canada’s population, estimated at 40.3 million in 2024, is expected to grow to between 45.2 million (low-growth scenario) and 80.8 million (high-growth scenario) by 2074. The medium-growth scenario forecasts a population of 59.3 million by the same year.
The growth in population is largely attributed to migration, even with reduced immigration levels in the short term. The projections show that, in all three scenarios, migration will remain a key factor in shaping Canada’s demographic future.
Provincial and Territorial Population Projections
The report also highlights how each province and territory is expected to change from 2024 to 2049, based on fertility, mortality, and migration rates.
Alberta and Atlantic Canada
Alberta is expected to see a significant population increase across all scenarios, with its demographic weight growing the most. In contrast, Newfoundland and Labrador may experience a population decline, especially under the low-growth scenario.
In the high-growth scenario, Newfoundland’s population could increase by 1.1%, but in the low-growth scenario, it could shrink by 16.1%. Meanwhile, other Atlantic provinces (excluding Newfoundland) may see demographic growth if current trends continue.
Ontario and Quebec
Ontario is projected to experience population growth in all scenarios. The increase could range from 5.7% in a low-growth scenario to 38.7% in a high-growth scenario. Ontario’s population, estimated at 16.1 million in 2024, will continue to rise significantly.
Quebec’s population, estimated at 9.06 million in 2024, is expected to decrease by 3% in a low-growth scenario. However, under a medium-growth scenario, Quebec’s population could grow by 7.4%, and under a high-growth scenario, it could increase by as much as 19.8%.
Manitoba and Saskatchewan
Manitoba is also expected to see population increases across all scenarios, with a 3.3% rise under low growth and a 35.8% increase in high-growth projections. Saskatchewan’s population is projected to grow by 6.3% under low growth and 38.9% under high growth.
Alberta and British Columbia
Alberta will see the largest population growth, with projections showing a 24.9% increase in the low-growth scenario and a dramatic 56.1% rise in the high-growth scenario. British Columbia will also see growth, though more modest, with a 6.7% increase in the low-growth scenario and 39.9% in a high-growth scenario.
The Territories
The three territories present varied population changes. The Northwest Territories could see a population decrease in a low-growth scenario, with a 9% drop by 2049. However, in a high-growth scenario, the population could increase by 14.7%. Nunavut, in contrast, is expected to grow by 10.5% in a low-growth scenario and 33.9% in a high-growth scenario. Yukon’s population could increase by 7.7% under low growth and 32.1% under high growth.
Conclusion
Despite the federal government’s decision to reduce immigration, Canada’s population is expected to continue growing in the coming decades. Migration remains a key factor in this growth, and provinces such as Alberta and Ontario will see significant increases. However, other regions, like Newfoundland and Quebec, could face demographic challenges depending on various growth scenarios.
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