Republican lawmakers are pushing for a major overhaul of immigration laws and border restrictions, aiming to fulfill one of President-elect Donald Trump’s key campaign promises. However, their chances of achieving the sweeping changes conservatives desire appear slim.
Despite holding majorities in both the House and Senate, the GOP faces significant political obstacles as they attempt to deliver on their immigration crackdown pledge. Divisions within the party and the threat of Senate filibusters could complicate efforts to pass comprehensive immigration reforms.
Hardline Republicans and those concerned about severe restrictions on asylum and deportations are divided on how aggressive the approach should be. With a potentially narrow House majority, Republicans will need to unify their position and win over Senate Democrats, who may block legislation. Although the GOP could use a procedural tool known as budget reconciliation to bypass the filibuster, it seems unlikely that this strategy would allow for a complete overhaul of immigration policy.
“We’re going to need some time to see how things unfold,” said Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas). “We need to figure out what the House and Senate conferences want and what President Trump wants, then work within a short timeframe to push that agenda forward.”
The internal conflicts within the GOP highlight the difficulties Republicans will face in fulfilling their policy promises in 2025. With a slim House majority and divisions over key issues, including immigration, the party must navigate these challenges carefully.
For months, Republican leaders have been discussing strategies for a potential GOP-controlled government. Some privately express frustration over missed opportunities during Trump’s first term. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) has been working closely with House GOP leaders and committee chairs to plan for the coming year, including meetings with key figures like Trump and Senate leaders. In late November, staff from both the House and Senate met to discuss using budget reconciliation for immigration changes.
There are areas of agreement among Republicans on immigration, particularly around securing more funding for the border wall, enhancing border technology, and increasing personnel. Additionally, lawmakers are considering measures like taxing remittances sent by U.S. residents to other countries.
However, disagreements are likely to arise over the specifics. Moderate Republicans, especially those from swing districts, are expected to push for a fast-track immigration bill in the House. This legislation, likely to be passed along party lines, would face resistance in the Senate. Republicans spent months negotiating this bill last year, which includes provisions to limit asylum claims and require border wall construction.
Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) has suggested including more aggressive changes in the budget reconciliation process, but such proposals could clash with Senate budget rules. For policies to qualify for reconciliation, their budgetary impact must outweigh their policy impact—a limitation that may block some of the more ambitious changes, such as expanding deportation measures. Trump is expected to pursue some of these changes through executive orders, but such actions could be undone by a future administration.
A divide is also apparent within the GOP over how extensive Trump’s mass deportation plan should be, and how to best use reconciliation to achieve those goals. Jordan has proposed including measures like the “Remain in Mexico” policy, which requires certain migrants to stay in Mexico while seeking asylum, and tightening asylum qualifications. He also advocates changing the Flores settlement, which governs the treatment and detention of immigrant children.
Jordan outlined his strategy: “We should pass H.R. 2 as a standalone bill or break it up into pieces—either way, we need to show that we’re ready to move forward. Then we’ll see what parts can be included in reconciliation.”
Republicans are looking at the Democrats’ use of reconciliation to pass parts of the Affordable Care Act as a potential model for their own strategy. One anonymous GOP lawmaker suggested that, while the Senate parliamentarian may reject some of their proposals, it’s worth pushing the boundaries.
Earlier attempts at immigration reforms using budget reconciliation failed. In 2021, Democrats tried to include protections for undocumented immigrants, such as extending work permits and offering temporary protection from deportation, but the Senate parliamentarian ruled that these provisions violated budget rules.
The Republican Study Committee has also been exploring immigration ideas, keeping in mind what is likely to pass the Senate parliamentarian’s scrutiny. Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) explained that the group aimed to present ideas that were both concise and feasible under reconciliation rules.
As the GOP works to navigate these challenges, the outcome of their efforts will shape the party’s immigration policy in the coming years.
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