The incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump is expected to intensify efforts against legal immigration while continuing its crackdown on illegal immigration. Key areas of focus will include slowing the approval of immigration applications and reallocating resources to investigate potential fraud in previous naturalization cases.
Stephen Miller, the incoming White House deputy chief of staff, has indicated that efforts to pursue denaturalization will be “supercharged” during Trump’s second term. While these efforts are likely to attract significant media attention, experts suggest they may not have a large impact on immigrant populations overall.
Stuart Anderson, director of the National Foundation for American Policy, explained that while denaturalization cases are expected to continue, their effect will likely be minimal compared to other actions, such as restricting green card categories. For example, blocking the diversity visa program could prevent around 50,000 people from immigrating each year.
Denaturalizations are rare, but the first Trump administration made notable attempts to spotlight this issue. In 2018, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) director Francis Cissna announced a new team of lawyers to refer 1,600 cases of naturalization fraud to the Department of Justice (DOJ). In 2020, the DOJ launched its own initiative to accelerate denaturalization cases, filing 228 cases between 2008 and 2020—94 of which were filed during Trump’s first three years in office.
However, denaturalization cases are difficult to prove. A landmark 2017 Supreme Court decision raised the standard of evidence required for the government to successfully prosecute cases of fraud in naturalization applications. Under the ruling, a naturalized citizen can lose their U.S. citizenship if they intentionally misrepresented facts in their application that were central to their eligibility.
Notable figures like Elon Musk, who has discussed his past use of illegal drugs and his immigration status under a student visa, could face scrutiny under this strict interpretation. Similarly, Prince Harry, who has been criticized by conservative groups over his immigration process, could also become a target.
In 2016, an internal Department of Homeland Security (DHS) audit revealed that 315,000 fingerprint files of deported immigrants or those convicted of crimes were missing from the database used to cross-check applicants. This resulted in the identification of 858 individuals who had been deported but successfully applied for citizenship under different identities.
Despite the low levels of fraud, the Trump administration directed significant resources toward investigating old applications, shifting focus away from processing new ones. In fiscal 2019, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) redirected more than $200 million from application processing to fund “Operation Second Look” and “Operation Janus,” which were designed to address the issues raised in the DHS report.
Organizations such as the American Civil Liberties Union have warned that these actions could discourage eligible legal permanent residents from applying for citizenship.
Anderson predicted that the second Trump administration will continue efforts to reduce legal immigration, which could have long-term effects on the U.S. economy. While denaturalizations alone are unlikely to create a significant demographic shift, economists are concerned that broader immigration restrictions could hinder economic growth.
A study by economist Madeline Zavodny at the National Foundation for American Policy found that restrictive immigration policies, combined with the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, contributed to a 1.3 percentage point decrease in U.S. GDP growth in 2022.
Robert Lynch, an economics professor at Washington College, emphasized the importance of a growing labor force to U.S. economic growth. He warned that reducing immigration could slow the overall growth rate by limiting a key source of labor.
In summary, while the Trump administration’s focus on legal immigration and denaturalization may not drastically alter immigrant demographics, the economic implications of reducing immigration remain a key concern for many experts.
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