Support for deporting undocumented immigrants has grown since Donald Trump’s presidency, with nativist sentiments also on the rise. However, public backing for mass deportations fluctuates depending on how the issue is presented, indicating there are limits to public support for denying citizenship pathways to those in the US illegally.
Trump made mass deportation a key promise for his 2024 campaign, with his allies already making plans to implement such policies. Immigration advocates are preparing for significant action in response.
CNN’s national exit polling from this year shows immigration was a strong issue for Trump, but it does not indicate a widespread mandate for mass deportation. Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris by about 9 percentage points on handling immigration. However, voters favored offering most undocumented immigrants a chance to apply for legal status by 56% to 40%, rather than deporting them. About 25% of Trump voters supported a pathway to citizenship, while just 9% of Harris voters favored deportation. Nearly 40% of Hispanic voters who supported Trump backed a citizenship path.
Polling from this year shows varying levels of support for deportation. A June Gallup poll found 47% of Americans in favor of deporting all immigrants living in the US illegally, while 58% of registered voters in an October Marquette Law School poll backed deportation. However, when asked about deportation of immigrants with jobs, no criminal record, and years of residence, support dropped to 40%, with 60% opposing it.
Additional polling found broad support for pathways to citizenship. A Gallup survey showed 70% of Americans favored allowing undocumented immigrants to become US citizens after meeting certain requirements, with 81% supporting a pathway for those brought to the country as children. Similarly, a CBS News/YouGov poll in June showed 62% of voters favored starting a national deportation program, but a majority opposed detaining immigrants to carry it out.
When given the choice between deportation and a pathway to citizenship, many surveys found stronger support for the latter. CNN’s pre-election survey showed that two-thirds of voters believed the top priority should be creating a plan to allow some undocumented immigrants to become legal residents. A Pew Research poll this summer found 59% of voters supported a way for qualifying undocumented immigrants to stay, while 37% opposed it.
Despite these findings, national polls agree on a rising support for deportation policies and a broader increase in nativist sentiments. CNN’s October poll showed a 20-point increase in support for deportation among registered voters since 2017. Gallup’s June 2024 data showed a 15-point increase since 2016 in favor of deporting all undocumented immigrants and a 17-point rise in support for reducing immigration levels.
Political scientist Michael Tesler suggested this shift aligns with the “thermostatic model” of public opinion, where public attitudes tend to move in opposition to the policies of the sitting president—shifting left during Trump’s presidency and now moving back right under Biden.
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