The upcoming U.S. presidential election could significantly affect employment-based immigration, especially the H-1B visa program, according to a report from JM Financial.
The report suggests that if Donald Trump were to return to the White House, his administration’s earlier restrictive policies could resurface. This would likely lead to more scrutiny and higher denial rates for H-1B and L-1 visas, particularly impacting IT service firms that rely on these programs.
During his first term, the denial rate for H-1B visa applications jumped from 4% to 17%, while L-1 visa denials rose from 12% to 28%. Such trends could return if Trump is re-elected.
Trump’s administration had previously used executive orders, such as E.O. 13788 (“Buy American and Hire American”), to tighten restrictions on the H-1B visa program. However, since then, many IT companies have reduced their dependence on H-1B visas. Estimates show that the percentage of visa-dependent workers has dropped from 65% to less than 50% in recent years. This shift has helped some companies avoid the impact of potential denial spikes by localizing their workforces in the U.S.
Additionally, Trump’s administration attempted to raise the minimum wage requirements for H-1B visa holders, a move that would have priced some employers out of the market. While these policies were blocked in court, they could signal future attempts to restrict visa access if Trump is re-elected. Current data already shows that wages for H-1B visa holders are 25-35% above the prevailing wage, making claims of wage suppression harder to prove.
The report also indicated that, while a Trump presidency might present challenges for Indian IT services firms, its impact may not be as severe as initially expected. On the other hand, a potential Kamala Harris presidency would likely maintain the current immigration policies, keeping things largely unchanged.
Looking ahead, bipartisan efforts to reform the U.S. immigration system could also play a crucial role in shaping the future of high-skilled immigration. These legislative shifts may impact the visa landscape regardless of the election’s outcome.
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