Canada-India Dispute Raises Concerns Over Cyber Espionage and Immigration.
OTTAWA, Oct 30 (Reuters) – The ongoing conflict between Canada and India regarding allegations of violence against Sikhs in Canada may escalate cyber espionage activities by India and hinder immigration processes. However, analysts believe there will be no immediate effect on trade between the two nations.
Tensions escalated after a senior Canadian official informed a parliamentary national security committee that Indian Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah, a close ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was allegedly behind these violent plots. Indian officials have rejected this claim, but it could worsen the ongoing dispute that began a year ago. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau previously cited credible evidence linking Indian agents to the June 2023 shooting of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia.
In response to these allegations, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats earlier this month, accusing them of involvement in the murder, for which four men have been charged.
The Canadian signals intelligence agency, responsible for monitoring foreign cyber threats, indicated that India may already be engaging in cyber espionage against Canadian networks. Caroline Xavier, head of the Communications Security Establishment Canada, stated, “As Canada and India potentially may have some tensions, it is possible that we may see India want to flex those cyber threat actions against Canadians.” The agency has previously identified India as an emerging threat.
On the diplomatic front, Ottawa is unlikely to take further action until more details emerge in the Nijjar case. Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, noted that cabinet ministers are scheduled to testify before the national security committee, and the trial for the charged men has not yet begun. She stated, “If charges are laid against individuals in India, it could trigger a lengthy extradition process, and India is unlikely to cooperate.”
Officials in Trudeau’s government, including Foreign Minister Melanie Joly, did not respond to inquiries about potential next steps from Ottawa.
India is a significant source of temporary foreign workers and international students for Canada, but a backlog of applications has developed since Trudeau’s allegations last year. Canada now has only four immigration officials in India, down from 27 in October 2023, affecting its ability to process visas on-site. Immigration Minister Marc Miller warned, “This could get worse before it gets better, and they need to brace for it.”
The ongoing situation may result in fewer legitimate travelers between the two countries.
In terms of trade, India is Canada’s tenth largest trading partner, and New Delhi has expressed a desire to maintain trade flows. A study by Nadjibulla’s foundation revealed that Trudeau’s statements in October 2023 had little to no impact on bilateral trade. However, she added, “Whether that would be the case now is a bigger question mark, because the disruption is on a larger scale.”
Canada is the leading exporter of pulses, such as lentils, to India. Greg Cherewyk, President of Pulse Canada, emphasized the strength of the trading relationship, stating, “In a time of stubborn food price inflation and strong demand for pulse crops, we are confident that affordability and availability will continue to drive decision-making at a government level.”
Michael Harvey, executive director of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance, expressed optimism, saying, “We have thankfully not seen the political tensions affect trade. India and Canada have great potential in their trading relationship, and CAFTA hopes we can return to positive trade discussions.”
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