Former President Donald Trump’s proposed mass deportation plan, should he be re-elected, is projected to have a significant financial impact. The American Immigration Council estimates that deporting one million individuals each year could cost approximately $88 billion annually. This plan could also result in a $1.7 trillion decrease in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) due to the loss of millions of workers in the construction, hospitality, and agriculture sectors.
Tom Homan, who served as the head of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) during Trump’s first term, expressed skepticism about the accuracy of the $88 billion estimate but emphasized the need for mass deportation. “What price do you put on national security? Is it worth it?” he asked.
Current Deportation Processes
Recently, 60 Minutes accompanied ICE officers in Silver Spring, Maryland, as they arrested undocumented immigrants with criminal records, including those convicted of assault, robbery, and drug offenses. These individuals had been identified by ICE as threats to public safety.
During an operation, officers stopped a van and arrested a 24-year-old Guatemalan man with an assault conviction who had been ordered deported five years prior. The van’s driver, also undocumented and previously deported, was not arrested because he had no criminal record. Matt Elliston, director of ICE’s Baltimore field office, explained that the driver was picking up an employee for work and noted, “It doesn’t make sense to waste a detention bed on someone like that when we have other felons to go out and get today.”
Elliston stressed that ICE’s mission focuses on targeted enforcement aimed at enhancing public safety. “It’s not to just aimlessly arrest anyone we come across,” he said.
The operation required a team of over a dozen officers and took seven hours to arrest six individuals, excluding the time spent searching for them.
Resources for Mass Deportation
With over 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S., making up about 3% of the population, Trump has committed to initiating the largest mass deportation program in the nation’s history. However, Homan, a Fox News contributor who Trump has indicated may join him in a second term, noted that he is not aware of any formal mass deportation plan.
Homan stated, “ICE is very good at these operations. This is what they do.” However, Elliston questioned how ICE would secure the necessary resources for such a large-scale operation in Maryland.
“The amount of money that that would cost to detain everybody would reach Department of Defense levels of financing,” he explained.
According to Jason Houser, who served as ICE chief of staff during the early years of the Biden administration, it costs about $150 per night to detain individuals, with an average stay of 46 days. One deportation flight can cost up to $250,000, assuming the individual’s home country will accept them; countries like Cuba and Venezuela often do not.
The Logistics of Mass Deportation
Currently, ICE employs around 6,000 law enforcement officers in its deportation division. Houser pointed out that a significant increase in personnel would be needed to deport one million people annually. “You’re talking 100,000 official officers, police officers, detention officers, support staff, and management staff,” he said.
Trump adviser Stephen Miller suggested that staff could be drawn from other government agencies, such as the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). However, Houser criticized this approach, arguing that taking personnel away from their existing missions would be impractical.
Elliston added that immigration enforcement requires specialized training and language skills that most military and law enforcement officers do not possess. “It is not an easy swap,” he stated. From the Immigration and Nationality Act, immigration law is second only to the U.S. tax code in complexity.”
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