Diego Quiñones, now a successful business owner, recalls his frustration as a child working long hours at his family’s immigrant business. Once, in a moment of protest, he kicked over a bucket. However, during a recent tour of his family’s pallet manufacturing plant in Bentonville, Arkansas, he felt immense pride in the thriving enterprise.
Diego, along with his mother and siblings, immigrated from Mexico to the United States in 1997, following his father’s arrival two years earlier. Most family members entered the country without documentation, and the father remains undocumented. They settled in a region of Arkansas near Walmart’s headquarters, where the poultry industry is robust. The family humorously noted that wooden pallets were as essential to local industries as tortillas are in Mexico, leading them to start manufacturing pallets. As the area expanded, so did their business.
The exact number of undocumented immigrants in Arkansas remains unclear. However, former President Donald Trump’s party platform has promised the “largest deportation effort in American history.” Many in the community are concerned about the potential impact of deportations on local workers and businesses that rely on them.
Northwest Arkansas was ranked the 15th fastest-growing region in the U.S. last year, largely due to the influx of immigrant workers. The region’s demographics have shifted significantly; in 1990, it was 95% white, but by 2021, that number had dropped to nearly 71%. In Springdale, home to Tyson Foods, the Hispanic population is now close to 40%.
Although Trump has provided few details on his deportation plans, his running mate, J.D. Vance, mentioned during a debate that they would start with deporting approximately one million individuals with criminal records, excluding those who entered the country illegally.
Experts highlight the many challenges to implementing Trump’s mass deportation plan. In 2022, an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants lived in the U.S. A mass deportation could cost around $88 billion annually over the next decade, according to the American Immigration Council, a nonprofit advocacy group. Additionally, Congress would need to fund one million arrests and hire at least 31,000 immigration agents. The legal system already faces a backlog, with nearly four million cases pending in the courts, often taking two to six years to resolve.
Despite these logistical obstacles, the threat of mass deportations has instilled fear among many. Diego’s mother gained permanent residency in 2021, while he and his sister are protected under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which shields young immigrants from deportation.
Diego, now 35, remarked, “It’s a popular selling point to the base to say ‘I’m going to round up five million immigrants.’ You want to cut out your labor source? It seems counterproductive.”
The growing immigrant population in Northwest Arkansas has fostered a vibrant local economy. Downtown Springdale features numerous Mexican restaurants, and Hispanic students now make up 45% of the school system. The city hosts an annual event, ArkanSalsa Fest, and announced plans to welcome a professional soccer team, Ozark United FC, due to the region’s growth and sizable Hispanic community.
Economists have explored the impact of immigration on the labor market, and findings reveal a complex relationship. Research indicates that immigrants often stimulate job creation by increasing demand for goods and services. A study on the effects of 400,000 deportations between 2008 and 2013 found that for every 100 unauthorized immigrants removed from the workforce, there were nine fewer jobs available for native-born workers.
Unauthorized immigrants frequently take jobs that native workers are unwilling to do at the current wage levels, especially in fields like childcare, construction, and agriculture. However, some studies suggest this may negatively affect wages for certain U.S.-born workers, particularly high school dropouts.
The short-term consequences of large-scale deportations can be severe. For instance, after nearly 400 workers were arrested in a 2008 raid at a meatpacking plant in Iowa, the local economy suffered significantly, leading to the plant’s bankruptcy and the closure of several small businesses.
Arkansas business leaders are openly discussing the potential economic and labor challenges that mass deportations could cause. Nelson Peacock, head of the Northwest Arkansas Council, created by major employers like Walmart and Tyson, stated, “It would certainly cause disruption and angst.”
In a Fayetteville coffee shop, he expressed hopes to initiate a program to help regional employers secure legal assistance for immigrant workers, particularly those who struggle with English paperwork or cannot afford legal fees.
Peacock has noted with concern the national debates surrounding the immigrant community in places like Springfield, Ohio, which Vance described as “overwhelmed” by Haitian newcomers. He said, “We don’t have this thinking that people are being displaced. We, in fact, have 11,000 open jobs.”
In Northwest Arkansas, Peacock emphasized that residents are increasingly aware of the regional economy’s reliance on immigrant workers. However, he doubts this recognition will significantly influence their voting choices. “I don’t know that it weighs into the way people vote,” he added.
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