Candidates Promise Housing Solutions Amid Deportation Concerns.
Both presidential candidates have pledged to increase the number of homes available in the U.S. However, one candidate, former President Donald Trump, also promises to deport hundreds of thousands of people who contribute to home construction.
Trump’s plan to initiate “the largest deportation operation in the history of our country” could hinder construction firms that are already facing labor shortages. Industry leaders, contractors, and economists warn that this move would push home prices even higher.
Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, stated, “It would be detrimental to the construction industry and our labor supply and exacerbate our housing affordability problems.” The organization highlights the importance of foreign-born workers, who make up about 30% of trade jobs in areas like carpentry and electrical work.
Brent Taylor, President of Taylor Construction Group in Tampa, Florida, explained the financial impact of potential labor shortages. He said, “Either I make half as much money or I raise my prices. And who ultimately pays for that? The homeowner.”
As of 2022, nearly 11 million undocumented immigrants live in the U.S., a decline from a peak of 11.8 million in 2007. The construction sector employs around 1.5 million undocumented workers, accounting for about 13% of the total workforce, according to Pew Research Center data. The share is particularly high in states like Florida and Texas, especially in residential construction.
Taylor described the home building industry as “very, very difficult” in recent years, and he fears it will only worsen. His Tampa-based company relies on subcontractors for labor, and he cannot verify the legal status of those workers.
Currently, the construction industry is seeking to fill 370,000 open positions. Taylor noted that if the labor pool shrinks further, “I can only do 10 jobs a year instead of 20.”
Logistics of Deportation
Trump has not provided details on how his proposed mass deportations would be implemented. He claims that removing up to 20 million people would create more homes for U.S. citizens and lower prices. However, many economists dispute this idea. Analysts also express concern about the high costs associated with such a large-scale operation.
Many builders doubt Trump’s ability to follow through with his deportation promise. Stan Marek, CEO of the Marek Family of Companies, said, “You’d lose so many people that you couldn’t put a crew together to frame a house.”
Bryan Dunn, a senior vice president at Big-D Construction in Arizona, called the idea of moving that many people “almost laughable.” He added that the proposal has left industry professionals questioning how much is genuine concern and how much is political fearmongering.
While Trump has a history of making bold claims, he has also implemented significant policies regarding immigration. His administration built a border wall, restricted travel from certain countries, and separated migrant families. He often uses inflammatory rhetoric about immigrants, claiming they contribute to crime.
Despite local authorities in cities like Aurora, Colorado, rejecting his claims of gang invasions, polling shows significant support for deporting undocumented immigrants. Taylor Rogers, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, claimed, “President Trump’s mass deportation of illegal immigrants will not only make our communities safer but will save Americans from footing the bill for years to come.”
Trump’s campaign press secretary clarified that comments about genetics referred to murderers, not migrants.
Tobin emphasized that the National Association of Home Builders is concerned about the deportation proposal but is engaging with both presidential campaigns. He stressed the need for a serious discussion about immigration policy and reform.
Long-term Solutions Needed
Marek advocates for legal work options for undocumented workers, arguing that reforms are overdue. He mentioned that many undocumented workers have built homes for decades. “Losing the workers would devastate our companies, our industry, and our economy,” he said.
An analysis from the George W. Bush Institute and Southern Methodist University in December 2022 indicated that areas with growing immigrant populations tend to have lower building costs.
Ron Hetrick, a labor economist at Lightcast, warned that mass deportations would be disruptive. He said, “The math is just not there” to handle the fallout. He noted that the construction industry has added jobs over the past decade, but many in the workforce are aging, with an average age of 57.
Many undocumented workers may leave the country if mass deportations begin, even if they have lived in the U.S. for years. Hetrick referenced a similar trend in Florida, where restrictive laws prompted many workers to exit.
Historical Context
Last year, Florida’s governor enacted measures to deter the employment of undocumented workers. Many left the state before the laws took effect, leading to empty construction sites. Luciano, a carpenter from Mexico, expressed frustration with these policies, stating that workers endure difficult conditions and long hours.
Brent Taylor noted that initial panic among Florida builders faded as enforcement proved weak. He reassured them, “Just give it six months. We don’t have enough people to enforce it, so they’re coming back.”
While some workers returned, the situation remains fluid. State Rep. Rick Roth acknowledged that Florida was unprepared for the chaos caused by new laws.
In 2010, Arizona enacted strict immigration restrictions, leading to a significant exodus of workers. Dunn, who worked in Arizona at the time, recalled that many left and never returned, damaging the state’s reputation as a work-friendly environment.
Dunn supports Vice President Kamala Harris, while others in the construction sector express mixed views about Trump. Taylor appreciates Trump’s effectiveness but stresses that immigration reform is just one of many issues facing the economy.
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