Donald J. Trump recently turned away from his crowd in Atlanta, staring at a screen as ominous music played. For a minute and a half, he and his audience watched clips of news reports detailing crimes committed by undocumented immigrants.
After the video ended, Trump articulated what he has been telling advisers in private: he believes immigration is the “No. 1” issue in the 2024 election. “That beats out the economy,” he asserted, adding that the United States is “now an occupied country.” He proclaimed that November 5, 2024, will be a “liberation day in America.”
In the final weeks of his campaign, Trump is relying on his instincts, emphasizing rhetoric he believes won him the 2016 election. Immigration and border security form the crux of his closing message to voters. However, this approach contrasts with data and advice from some of his advisers.
Trump has told aides that his success against Hillary Clinton in 2016 stemmed from his focus on the border. He claims that by 2020, illegal crossings had dramatically decreased, partly due to the pandemic, which limited his ability to use immigration as a political issue against Joe Biden. Now, with record border crossings under the Biden administration, Trump sees immigration as a potent political message. He also played a role in blocking a bipartisan border security bill the Biden administration attempted to pass.
Despite Trump’s belief, surveys show that voters frequently prioritize the economy and the rising cost of living over immigration. In recent days, Trump has engaged in economy-themed events, proposing tax deductions for car loan interest and tax breaks for companies relocating manufacturing to the U.S.
However, Trump’s energy comes from his rallies, where he receives strong reactions when discussing immigration. He becomes animated and intense, contrasting with the more muted responses to his economic discussions. Trump has expressed to allies that crowds appear “bored” when he talks too much about the economy.
Recently, he told rally audiences that his opposition to illegal immigration saved his life. In July, during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, he looked at a chart of illegal border crossings just as a would-be assassin’s bullet missed him by inches. He has since elevated the issue, stating, “If you think about it, illegal immigration saved my life.”
Some advisers, like Stephen Miller, fully support Trump’s focus on immigration. However, others worry that some of Trump’s extreme rhetoric could alienate moderate voters. Miller has been more involved in shaping Trump’s message, flying on his plane frequently since the summer.
Last month, Trump aimed to visit Springfield, Ohio, after spreading unfounded rumors about Haitian migrants eating local pets. Despite the fact that these immigrants were legally in the country, local Republican officials urged Trump to cancel his visit due to escalating tensions, including bomb threats that led to school closures. Ohio’s Republican Governor Mike DeWine condemned Trump for his comments.
Many in Trump’s circle privately believed that a visit to Springfield could harm his political standing. At a Univision town hall, Trump insisted he would go, though no date was set. Instead, he spoke in Aurora, Colorado, another non-battleground state, focusing on his core issue of immigration.
In Aurora, Trump discussed using the Alien Enemies Act to deport gang leaders. This law allows sweeping deportations of individuals from countries at war with the U.S. or involved in predatory activities. Its application to drug cartels remains legally uncertain.
Even when discussing the economy, Trump tends to link it back to immigration. When asked about housing costs, the Trump campaign suggested that mass deportations would alleviate housing shortages and lower prices.
A Trump spokesperson stated that Trump recognizes the connection between immigration and various issues, including high housing costs and overwhelmed public services. He aims to prioritize American citizens and restore prosperity.
Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist, noted that Trump is gambling that fear-based appeals will win more votes than they cost. He suggested that while some of Trump’s rhetoric may resonate with white suburban women concerned about the influx of migrants, it might also turn off other voters.
Trump’s views on immigration have evolved over time. Initially, it was not a focus during his 2011 presidential consideration. However, as unaccompanied child crossings surged during the Obama administration, the issue became central to his 2015 campaign launch.
Now, immigration stands as a critical issue in the general election, ranking as the second most important for many voters. One of Trump’s key proposals, building a border wall, has gained broader support beyond his core base.
Despite his strong support among immigration-focused voters, it remains unclear how much more he can expand his share of the electorate by emphasizing the issue. Voters consistently rank the economy as their top concern, significantly ahead of immigration. Even among Republicans, the economy is nearly twice as important as immigration according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll.
Trump holds an advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris on both the economy and immigration, but while his lead on the economy is narrowing, he consistently leads on immigration.
As Trump criticizes Democrats for the increase in migrants, Harris and President Biden are working to reframe their stance as tough on immigration, urging Mexico to enforce its border more strictly. In a recent interview, Harris acknowledged ongoing systemic issues within the immigration system.
Harris has also countered Trump’s opposition to bipartisan border legislation, arguing that he has no real interest in resolving immigration issues and merely exploits them for political gain.
In a speech last month in Wisconsin, Trump promised to “liberate” the state from what he described as an “invasion of murderers, rapists, hoodlums, drug dealers, thugs and vicious gang members,” insisting that this issue is fundamental to the fabric of society and American life.
He reiterated this sentiment in Atlanta, stating, “After years of building up other countries, we will protect our borders, defend our families, and protect our American suburbs, cities, and towns.”
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