America’s Immigration Debate Shifts Toward Restrictionism.
The debate over immigration in the United States has taken a restrictive turn. Eight years ago, Donald Trump infamously stated that “when Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best” and vowed to build a “big, beautiful wall” at the southern border. While his rhetoric was extreme at the time, it seems mild compared to his current claims that immigrants are “psychopathic murderers” and threats to the nation. He now promises the “largest deportation operation in history.”
Democrats have also changed their stance. In 2020, Joe Biden campaigned on reversing Trump’s border policies and expanding legal immigration, stating, “If I’m elected president, we’re going to end Trump’s assault on the dignity of immigrant communities.” However, Democratic messaging for 2024 lacks the humanitarian tone of previous years. Vice President Kamala Harris now emphasizes her background in prosecuting transnational crime and focuses on legislation to “fortify” the southern border.
These shifts in rhetoric are a response to significant changes in U.S. public opinion. In 2020, 28 percent of Americans believed immigration should decrease; by 2024, that figure rose to 55 percent—the highest since 2001. This change has been most pronounced among Republicans, but Democrats and independents are also growing less supportive of immigration.
Political scientists note that public opinion often swings in response to the sitting president’s actions and rhetoric, particularly when that president is polarizing. Trump’s anti-immigrant stance led many Democrats to embrace pro-immigrant views. In 2016, only 30 percent of Democrats wanted to increase immigration; by 2020, that number had jumped to 50 percent.
However, Biden’s approach has sparked a backlash. After he rescinded many of Trump’s policies, right-wing media and Republican politicians began framing Biden’s immigration stance as a liability. By mid-2022, Republican support for decreased immigration rose sharply, while some Democratic attitudes began reverting to pre-2016 levels.
Public opinion has continued to trend rightward since Biden took office. Between June 2023 and June 2024, support for decreased immigration among Democrats rose by 10 points, while among Republicans it increased by 15 points—the largest annual shift recorded by Gallup since 1965.
This change may be linked to a surge in “border encounters,” a term referring to undocumented immigrants apprehended while entering the U.S. These encounters peaked at a record 300,000 in December 2023. This overwhelming increase strained Customs and Border Patrol resources and was widely covered by conservative media. Texas Governor Greg Abbott responded by sending asylum seekers to cities like New York, Chicago, and Denver, leading to significant local challenges.
Experts refer to this phenomenon as the “chaos theory” of immigration sentiment. The theory suggests that when immigration processes are viewed as fair and orderly, public support is more likely. In contrast, perceptions of chaos and unfairness can quickly shift opinions against immigration. Despite tighter restrictions, many Americans still believe in the contributions of undocumented immigrants and support pathways to citizenship.
This year, the Biden administration attempted to address these perceptions with executive orders aimed at managing the immigration process more effectively. As a result, border encounters have decreased, falling to around 100,000 in July and August 2024—the lowest levels since February 2021. Consequently, concerns about immigration as a national issue have also diminished, dropping from 28 percent in February to 19 percent by August.
Yet, Biden’s reliance on executive orders, which face legal challenges, highlights a deeper problem. Despite a public desire for a fair immigration system, the opposition party has strong incentives to obstruct reforms. Earlier this year, congressional Republicans rejected a bipartisan border-security bill after Trump opposed it, fearing it might grant Biden credit for solving immigration issues.
Overall, current restrictive attitudes do not reflect a permanent shift in American sentiment. Immigration views will likely continue to evolve, though it remains uncertain whether public policy will adapt accordingly.
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