Trump and Allies Target Immigrants as Birth Rates Decline, Experts Say.
Al Mohler, a prominent evangelical leader, is increasingly concerned about falling birth rates in the U.S., while former President Donald Trump focuses on vilifying immigrants. New research shows these two ideas are connected.
A recent report by Statista, highlighted by Katharina Buchholz, reveals that without immigration, 12 U.S. states would be losing population. Among these are key battleground states like Michigan and Ohio, where the population decline would be significant without international immigrants.
This connection has taken the spotlight in recent weeks as Trump and Ohio Senator JD Vance have targeted Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio. The town, which has seen population decline, has experienced revitalization thanks to the immigrants who have taken essential jobs and enriched the community. However, Trump and Vance have falsely painted them as dangerous criminals, which has been widely discredited.
A Political Strategy at Play
Historian Heather Cox Richardson explains that Trump and Vance’s misleading rhetoric is part of a broader political strategy aimed at regaining control of the Senate. By dehumanizing immigrants, they aim to sway voters in Ohio, where Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, a popular figure, is up for re-election. Brown’s defeat could shift the balance of power in the Senate, and similar tactics are being used against other vulnerable Democrats, such as Jon Tester in Montana.
Yet in Springfield, their efforts seem to be backfiring. Even some local Republican officials are rejecting the anti-immigrant narrative, recognizing that Haitian immigrants are hardworking and law-abiding members of the community. This exposes a growing rift within the GOP, where the fear-mongering narrative about immigrants clashes with the reality on the ground.
Declining Birth Rates and the Republican Dilemma
Behind the anti-immigrant rhetoric lies a deeper problem for the Republican Party: the shrinking white evangelical population. As Mohler, president of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, has emphasized, declining birth rates represent a significant challenge. In May, Mohler warned that low birth rates threaten “the very existence of human civilization” and labeled it “catastrophic.”
The Republican Party is facing a demographic crisis. Without gerrymandering and other tactics, such as those seen in states like Texas, Republicans would struggle to maintain control of state legislatures and could lose their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Mohler and Vance have placed the blame on women, particularly those who prioritize careers over having large families, while Trump has focused on vilifying immigrants, who are offsetting the decline in birth rates in many states.
The Impact of Immigration on State Populations
Buchholz’s Statista report provides a deeper look into how immigration is shaping population trends across the U.S. Several states, including high-cost areas like California and New York, have seen people move out. However, international immigration has helped balance these losses. In states like Michigan and Ohio, where more people die each year than are born, immigration has kept population numbers stable.
Maintaining population totals is crucial, as it affects the number of Electoral College votes and congressional representatives a state receives. If a state loses population, it risks losing political power. Republicans, therefore, face a delicate balance. They need to maintain state populations while ensuring that these shifts don’t result in more Democratic voters.
A Historical Parallel
Richardson, the historian, sees a parallel between today’s political landscape and the events of 1890. After losing the popular vote in 1888, Republicans used the Electoral College to install President Benjamin Harrison. Fearing that Democrats would soon outnumber them, they sought to maintain control of the Senate. However, in the 1890 midterms, voters overwhelmingly supported Democrats, and the Senate’s fate came down to one seat in South Dakota.
At the time, U.S. Army troops were sent to South Dakota to put down an “Indian uprising” that had caused no damage or loss of life. This attempt to manipulate the electorate echoes the current political maneuvering seen in the GOP’s fear-based tactics.
Today, Republicans, facing declining birth rates and changing demographics, are using similar strategies to maintain control. While Mohler urges white evangelicals to have more children, Trump vilifies the immigrants who are helping to sustain population levels in key states. Whether these tactics will succeed remains to be seen, but the pushback in places like Springfield suggests that the GOP’s narrative on immigration may not be as effective as they hope.
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