Trump’s Mass Deportation Plan Faces Major Obstacles.
If re-elected, former President Donald Trump has pledged to carry out a mass deportation of undocumented immigrants from the United States. While his campaign has offered various estimates for the number of people who could be deported, Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance recently suggested a starting figure of one million.
Vance stated in an ABC News interview, “Let’s start with one million. That’s where Kamala Harris has failed. And then we can go from there.”
Despite its prominence in Trump’s campaign, with rally signs reading “Mass Deportations Now!”, experts highlight significant legal and practical hurdles to executing such a plan.
Legal Challenges
According to the Department of Homeland Security and Pew Research, approximately 11 million undocumented immigrants currently live in the U.S., a number that has remained stable since 2005. Most of these individuals have been in the country for over a decade.
Undocumented immigrants have the right to due process, including a court hearing before deportation. A surge in deportations would likely necessitate a major expansion of the already backlogged immigration court system. Furthermore, many immigrants enter the deportation system through local law enforcement rather than Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents. However, many large cities and counties have enacted laws limiting cooperation with ICE.
Kathleen Bush-Joseph from the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) emphasized the importance of local cooperation for effective deportation. “It’s much easier for ICE to pick someone up from a jail if local law enforcement co-operates,” she explained.
Bush-Joseph noted recent declarations from sheriff’s offices in Florida’s Broward and Palm Beach counties, which have stated they will not assist with mass deportations. “There are many others who would not co-operate,” she said, making the process more challenging.
Mass deportation plans would likely face immediate legal challenges from immigration and human rights groups. A 2022 Supreme Court ruling allows immigration enforcement policies to proceed despite ongoing legal challenges, but this does not resolve the logistical issues involved.
Logistical Issues
Even if legally feasible, implementing mass deportations would involve enormous logistical challenges. During the Biden administration, deportations have primarily focused on migrants recently detained at the border. Deportations from within the U.S., especially of individuals without criminal records, have been relatively low.
Aaron Reichlin-Melnick from the American Immigration Council warned that raising deportation numbers to one million in a single year would require a massive increase in resources. ICE’s current workforce of 20,000 agents would likely be insufficient to handle such a scale.
The deportation process is lengthy and complex, beginning with the identification and arrest of undocumented individuals, followed by detention or an alternative program, and finally, removal which requires cooperation from the receiving country. “ICE simply does not have the capacity to process millions of people,” Reichlin-Melnick said.
Trump has suggested involving the National Guard or military forces in deportations. Historically, the U.S. military’s role in immigration has been limited to border support functions.
Financial and Political Costs
Experts estimate that deporting one million people could cost tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars. ICE’s 2023 budget for transportation and deportation was $420 million, which covered the deportation of about 140,000 people. Expanding this to one million would significantly increase costs, including the construction of detention facilities and an expanded number of deportation flights.
Adam Isacson, a migration expert, noted that mass deportations could also have severe political and public relations consequences. “Every community in the U.S. would see people they know and love put on buses,” he said. “You’d have some very painful images on TV of crying children and families.”
Historical Context
Under Trump, approximately 1.5 million people were deported, including those from both the border and interior of the U.S. The Biden administration has deported about 1.1 million people as of February 2024, while the Obama administration deported over three million individuals.
The closest historical parallel to mass deportations is Operation Wetback in 1954, which deported up to 1.3 million people, mostly Mexican nationals. This operation faced considerable public opposition and funding issues and was largely discontinued by 1955.
Kathleen Bush-Joseph from MPI noted that the demographic and procedural differences between Operation Wetback and a modern deportation plan make them difficult to compare. “The vast majority of people coming now are from places other than Mexico or northern Central America, making deportations more complex,” she said.