Ottawa — The Liberal Party of Canada is projected to win the 2025 federal election, according to CBC News projections released Tuesday night. While it remains unclear whether the party will form a majority or minority government, Liberal leader Mark Carney is expected to be invited by the Governor General to become the next Prime Minister of Canada.
Although specific policy implementations will depend on the composition of Parliament and forthcoming legislative priorities, the Liberals’ 2025 campaign platform provides early insight into the direction their government is likely to take on immigration.
Permanent Resident Admissions to Be “Stabilized”
Acknowledging concerns over the strain on housing and social infrastructure, the Liberal platform commits to “stabilizing” the number of new permanent residents to less than one percent of Canada’s population annually beyond 2027. This mirrors current federal immigration targets set in the Immigration Levels Plan 2025–2027, which projects 395,000 new permanent residents in 2025, 380,000 in 2026, and 365,000 in 2027.
With Canada’s population projected to reach approximately 41.5 million in 2025, those targets already fall below the 1% threshold.
Reducing Temporary Resident Numbers
Canada’s temporary resident population stands at roughly 3.02 million as of January 2025—representing about 7.25% of the total population. The Liberal Party has pledged to bring that figure down to under 5% by the end of 2027. The reduction is expected to occur through a combination of temporary residents transitioning to permanent status or leaving the country as their visas expire.
The previous Liberal government had already introduced several measures aimed at curbing temporary resident numbers, including capping study permit applications and narrowing eligibility for Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWPs) and Spousal Open Work Permits (SOWPs).
On the campaign trail, Carney emphasized the need to maintain current immigration caps “until we’ve expanded housing, and we’ve reabsorbed the levels of immigration that have happened in our country [during the pandemic].”
Boosting Francophone Immigration Outside Quebec
The Liberal platform outlines plans to raise the target for francophone immigration outside Quebec to 12% by 2029. This represents a steady increase from current federal goals, which aim for 8.5% in 2025, 9.5% in 2026, and 10% in 2027. The move is designed to support French-speaking communities across Canada and address demographic and labour force needs in minority francophone regions.
Supporting Economic Immigration and Talent Attraction
To help Canadian businesses remain globally competitive, the Liberals have proposed enhancements to the federal Global Skills Strategy—a program that offers expedited work permits to highly skilled international workers.
Their platform also highlights initiatives to attract talent from the United States and accelerate the recognition of foreign credentials in cooperation with provinces and territories.
Other Key Immigration Commitments
The Liberal Party has also outlined a range of broader immigration-related commitments, including:
Expanding the use of digital tools to reduce processing delays and clear application backlogs;
Providing legal aid for asylum seekers and refugees to ensure timely case resolutions;
Continuing the removal of failed asylum claimants following due process;
Increasing funding for border enforcement, tightening visa requirements, and cracking down on immigration fraud;
Maintaining immigration as a shared jurisdiction with the government of Quebec.
This article will be updated as further election results and cabinet announcements become available.
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