The screen flashes with disturbing images of migrants dodging fast-moving highway traffic. A narrator’s voice echoes: “They keep coming. The federal government won’t stop them, yet demands we pay billions to care for them… Enough is enough.”
This rhetoric may sound familiar, but it is not new. It’s a 1994 campaign ad for Pete Wilson, a Republican running for reelection as California’s governor. At the time, California was in the midst of its worst recession in decades, and although immigrants were not responsible for the economic downturn, they became convenient scapegoats. Wilson’s anti-immigrant stance helped turn his faltering campaign around, and he won reelection that November.
Fast forward 30 years, and the United States is facing similar political tensions, with many Americans concerned about the cost of living and the issue of immigration. President-elect Donald Trump has frequently and inaccurately blamed immigrants for crime, housing crises, and other societal problems. He promises to close the U.S.-Mexico border quickly and deport the nearly 12 million immigrants living without legal status in the country.
As an expert in migration studies, my research suggests that Trump’s approach will not stop migration but will likely enrich criminal organizations. Migrants fleeing dire circumstances will continue their journeys, now under even more dangerous conditions that leave them vulnerable to exploitation by smugglers and other criminals.
The ‘Prevention through Deterrence’ Strategy
A few months after Wilson’s ad aired, the U.S. Border Patrol introduced its “prevention through deterrence” strategy, aiming to make illegal border crossings so dangerous that potential migrants would be deterred from attempting the journey. The plan focused on increasing enforcement in urban areas, pushing migrants into more hostile desert terrain and making it costlier to hire smugglers.
Today, illegal immigration is far deadlier and more expensive than it was in the 1990s, just as the Border Patrol’s strategy predicted. However, the belief that migrants would be discouraged by these dangers has proven to be wrong. Instead of staying home, migrants continue to come, even when facing higher risks and costs.
Fortified Borders and Increased Costs
To enforce this deterrence strategy, the U.S. has invested heavily in border security. The Border Patrol’s budget has increased more than sevenfold, and the number of agents stationed along the southwest border has quadrupled. Physical barriers, such as large walls, now stretch from California to Texas. In remote areas, surveillance drones, towers, and extreme weather conditions also play a role in keeping migrants out.
The U.S. has also funded Mexico’s immigration enforcement, contributing over $176 million between October 2014 and September 2023. While these measures have had some success in reducing illegal crossings from Mexico, the deterrent effect has been short-lived. After a significant decline in apprehensions in the early 2000s, the number of migrants caught trying to cross the border began to rise again in the 2010s, and in 2023, annual apprehensions reached a historic high of nearly 2 million.
A Changing Migration Landscape
A critical shift in the nature of migration is behind the failure of deterrence policies. In the past, most illegal border crossers were young Mexican men seeking better wages. But today, more than 60% of migrants crossing the U.S. border without legal authorization come from countries like Central America, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Haiti. Around 40% of these migrants are families traveling with children, many of whom are fleeing chronic violence, corruption, and economic collapse.
For these migrants, the risks of the journey—being kidnapped, dying in the desert, or being deported—are worth it to escape life-threatening conditions. One Honduran mother of three told us in June 2023, “If they deport me, sister, I will come back. If you go back, you die. So you have to go forward, forward, forward all the time.”
Criminal Enterprises Thrive
While the “prevention through deterrence” strategy has not stopped migration, it has made migrant smuggling a lucrative business. The cost of hiring a smuggler has skyrocketed, with some charging up to $15,000 to get a migrant across the U.S.-Mexico border. In 2018, smuggling revenues in the Americas were estimated at $500 million. By 2022, this figure had ballooned to $13 billion. Criminal organizations that once focused primarily on drug trafficking have increasingly turned their attention to migrant smuggling, with some estimates suggesting that smuggling now accounts for up to 70% of their operations.
In addition to smuggling, migrants are often victims of extortion and kidnapping by criminal gangs in Mexico. As Mexico’s immigration policies have become stricter, the cost to migrants has risen. These vulnerable individuals are often taken hostage by criminal groups, who demand ransom from their families.
A Failed Policy with Human Costs
The “prevention through deterrence” strategy has proven to be a failure, causing untold human suffering. Rather than stopping migration, it has led to increased violence, criminality, and insecurity. Drug cartels, armed groups, and corrupt officials are profiting from the vulnerability of migrants. Meanwhile, the cycle of violence and migration continues, likely to worsen with stricter enforcement and mass deportations.
This is a tragic reality that highlights the need for a new, more humane approach to immigration—one that addresses the root causes of migration rather than criminalizing those who are simply trying to escape violence and poverty.
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