Industries Most Vulnerable to Trump’s Immigration Crackdown

President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to deport millions of undocumented immigrants could significantly impact U.S. industries already struggling with labor shortages. It could also reduce the national GDP by as much as 6.8%.

While undocumented workers make up a small portion of the total U.S. workforce, they play crucial roles in industries like construction, agriculture, and hospitality. According to the American Immigration Council, as of 2022, the construction and agriculture sectors had the highest concentrations of undocumented labor.

In construction, 39% of plasterers and stucco masons, 36% of drywall installers, roofers, and ceiling tile installers, and 31% of painters are undocumented. In agriculture, 28% of graders and sorters of agricultural products, and 25% of other agricultural workers are undocumented.

A Pew Research report from October found that 75% of U.S. voters believe undocumented immigrants typically fill jobs that Americans do not want. Industries such as hospitality, health care, construction, and agriculture would face severe labor shortages without immigrant workers, according to the Center for Migration Studies.

From 1989 to 2022, surveys of U.S. agricultural workers show that the share of unauthorized workers peaked at 55% in 1999-2000. By 2021-2022, 42% of agricultural workers were unauthorized, while 32% were U.S. citizens.

A large-scale deportation could cost at least $315 billion, according to the American Immigration Council. The economic impact could reduce annual GDP by 4.2% to 6.8%, equating to a loss of $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion—more than the 4.3% decline seen during the 2007-09 Great Recession.

In addition to economic costs, mass deportations would have a significant human toll. Around 4 million mixed-status families could be torn apart, affecting approximately 8.5 million U.S. citizens. Household incomes could drop by nearly 63%, or around $51,000 per year.

Despite their relatively small share of the overall workforce—between 4.4% and 5.4% from 2003 to 2022, according to Pew Research—unauthorized immigrants represent a larger proportion of the workforce due to their age and labor force participation.

Trump’s deportation plan would use military funds and law enforcement across all government levels. The fast-track deportation process would apply to individuals who crossed the border illegally and cannot prove they have been in the U.S. for over two years. Currently, it only applies to recent crossers.

Trump also plans to limit legal immigration and asylum access. During his first term, he sought to restrict asylum, a position he has continued to pursue.

On Monday, Trump confirmed his plans to declare a national emergency and use military forces for mass deportations. He has appointed Tom Homan, former head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), as his “border czar” for the next term. Homan, who played a role in the family separation policy during Trump’s first administration, has been a strong advocate for mass deportations. He also led the deportation efforts under former President Obama.

Related topics: