If Donald Trump is elected president again, his immigration policies could significantly affect international students and potential immigrants. An analysis of Trump’s first term and the expected plans of his advisers for a second term suggests that new restrictions could hinder employers, students, and highly skilled professionals. Proposed changes may include limiting Optional Practical Training (OPT) for international students and forcing those waiting years for employment-based green cards to leave the U.S.
Previous Immigration Restrictions Affecting International Students
During his first term, the Trump administration focused on reducing the labor supply through various immigration restrictions. This approach was based on the “lump of labor fallacy,” the mistaken belief that new workers compete for a fixed number of jobs. As a result, the administration blocked the entry of immigrants and visa holders during the COVID-19 pandemic, created obstacles for foreign-born scientists and engineers, and implemented other restrictive policies.
One notable initiative was a proposed rule to restrict OPT, which allows international students to work in their field for up to 12 months after graduation. The Obama administration had previously expanded this program, allowing STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) students to extend their OPT by an additional 24 months.
Though the Trump administration considered a rule to limit OPT, it did not publish it. Senior adviser Stephen Miller advocated for numerous restrictions, including ending the STEM OPT program, but was often countered by more business-oriented officials like Jared Kushner, who is not expected to be involved in a second Trump administration.
Concerns for International Students in a Second Trump Term
Trump has suggested offering green cards to all international students after graduation, but this policy is unlikely to be pursued if he returns to office. Immigration attorneys fear that new restrictions on international students may arise rather than expansive policies.
Dan Berger from Green & Spiegel expressed concern about discouraging international talent from coming to the U.S., highlighting that the visa process became more difficult during Trump’s first term. He noted that processing times increased, security checks lengthened, and many applicants faced more questions, creating a chilling effect on attracting international talent.
Cornell Law School professor Stephen Yale-Loehr pointed out that a new Trump administration could impose tighter restrictions on H-1B work visas. Such changes might include higher denial rates, longer processing times, and stricter eligibility requirements, making it less likely for international students to seek opportunities in the U.S. after graduation.
Possible Future Restrictions on Green Card Applicants
New immigration policies could severely impact those waiting for employment-based green cards. Over one million Indians, including their dependents, are currently in line for these visas due to low annual limits and per-country quotas. Mark Barteau, a former chair of an immigration policy committee at the National Academy of Sciences, noted that the U.S. risks losing talent because of these constraints.
The Trump administration may try to regulate the employment market by increasing salary requirements for H-1B visa holders and green card applicants. In 2020, a Department of Labor rule raised the minimum wage for H-1B holders significantly, in some cases doubling it to around $208,000 annually. Although a judge blocked this rule due to procedural issues, a future administration could succeed in implementing similar policies if they follow proper regulatory channels.
Implications for H-1B Visa Denials and Work Authorization
If H-1B petition denials increase, individuals waiting for green cards may be forced to leave the country. Denial rates rose sharply during Trump’s first term, particularly for extensions of existing visas. A legal settlement in 2020 reversed many of these restrictive practices, but future policies could change that.
Additionally, a second Trump term might see changes to work authorization for spouses of H-1B visa holders. In 2018, the USCIS director suggested removing work eligibility for H-4 dependent spouses, reversing a rule that had allowed them to work. While the Trump administration did not formalize this policy, it implemented various other restrictive measures that delayed the processing of applications.
Conclusion
If Donald Trump regains the presidency, his immigration policies could profoundly impact international students and employment-based green card applicants. Those affected may face new restrictions that could reshape their opportunities in the U.S.
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