Trump’s Promise of Mass Deportation: What It Could Mean.
If Donald Trump returns to the White House, he has pledged to implement a mass deportation of at least 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. This promise echoes his previous administration’s efforts, which faced logistical and legal challenges.
Experts believe that a second Trump administration could approach this task differently. César García Hernández, a law professor at Ohio State University, notes that a more experienced administration would know how to navigate the bureaucracy effectively.
Additionally, the legal landscape may be less obstructive this time. Trump appointed numerous judges during his first term, reshaping the judiciary that previously hindered his immigration enforcement goals.
Mark Morgan, former acting commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection under Trump, states that a “whole-of-government approach” could make mass deportation feasible. He emphasizes that the focus would be on convicted criminals, but “nobody is off limits.”
Public opinion may also have shifted. A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll shows that 45% of respondents support Trump’s mass deportation proposal, while 49% oppose it.
While Trump has not outlined specific plans, insights from interviews and past statements suggest he aims to:
Use emergency powers to bypass laws protecting immigrants.
Invoke the Alien Enemies Act from the 1700s to detain certain groups.
Collaborate with local and state police to locate undocumented immigrants.
Employ military and National Guard resources for immigration enforcement.
Redirect federal resources to support these efforts.
According to the American Immigration Council, deporting 1 million people each year could cost around $88 billion. This would require a massive increase in law enforcement personnel, detention facilities, and immigration courtrooms.
Who Would Be Affected?
Pew Research estimates that there are 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S., most of whom have no criminal records. Their situations vary widely, from asylum seekers to visa overstayers.
Among these individuals, about 1.3 million already have removal orders but remain in the U.S., largely due to a shortage of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers and other logistical issues.
Experts suggest that those with existing removal orders and individuals in local jails could be targeted first. As Steven Camarota from the Center for Immigration Studies points out, this would be the “low-hanging fruit” for deportation efforts.
Moreover, more than half of the 11 million undocumented immigrants entered the country legally but overstayed their visas. Many have U.S. citizen spouses or children, making their potential deportation complex.
Challenges Ahead
Identifying and locating undocumented immigrants poses a significant challenge. Trump has proposed enlisting state and local law enforcement to assist federal agencies in this effort. If successful, it could lead to widespread civil rights violations, according to Mario Russell of the Center for Migration Studies.
Despite constitutional rights afforded to immigrants, such as the right to due process, practical limitations exist. Many undocumented immigrants do not have the same legal protections as U.S. citizens. For example, they are only entitled to a lawyer in immigration court if they can afford one.
Additionally, Trump has previously used emergency powers, such as Title 42 during the COVID-19 pandemic, to expedite deportations. This allowed for rapid expulsions without legal recourse.
The Scale of Detention
Implementing mass deportation for 11 million people would require a significant expansion of immigration detention facilities. Currently, ICE can detain an average of 34,000 individuals daily, using over 190 facilities across the country.
Trump has suggested that swift deportations would eliminate the need for large detention centers. However, many immigrants are entitled to hearings, and the immigration court system is already overwhelmed, with a backlog of 3.5 million cases.
Negotiating with foreign governments to accept deportees is another hurdle. Countries like China and Venezuela have historically refused to take back their citizens.
Legal Implications of the Alien Enemies Act
Trump has indicated he would use the Alien Enemies Act to facilitate deportations. This law allows for the removal of foreign nationals deemed a threat to national security, but its application could face legal challenges.
Experts warn that the broad interpretation of the law could lead to significant civil rights issues. Katherine Ebright, a lawyer at the Brennan Center for Justice, points out that the Act targets individuals based on their nationality rather than their actions.
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